Ok, the deadline for the TikTok ban is just 2 days away—January 19th.

This week on LinkedIn, I shared my perspective on the situation.

But here, I wanted to give you a 360° overview that delves into the complexities of this moment—from economic dependencies and cultural influence to national security and global politics.

The upcoming ruling could reshape not just TikTok’s future, but the entire role of social media in commerce, culture, and geopolitics.

I’ve identified 10 key angles to consider.

Did I miss anything? Hit reply to let me know—I’d love to chat about what’s next!

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The 10 layers of complexities of the TikTok Ban in the US

1. Economic and Cultural Costs​
   TikTok contributed $24.2 billion to the U.S. GDP and supported 224,000 jobs in 2023. Small and mid-sized businesses rely heavily on the platform for growth through organic marketing and creator partnerships. A ban could impact global trends, as TikTok is a hub for cultural and fashion innovation, leaving a void in trend-setting spaces.
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2. Legal and Political Context​
   TikTok is embroiled in legal battles globally, with restrictions or bans in at least 20 countries. The U.S. case centers around national security concerns and forced divestment. Former President Trump’s current stance opposing a ban contrasts his earlier efforts to shut down TikTok, further politicizing the debate.
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3. Consumer Sentiment​
   Support for the ban is declining among U.S. adults, with growing indifference (35% of respondents) as public interest wanes.
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4. Implications for Advertisers​
   Brands spent $4 billion on TikTok ads in 2023. If banned, advertisers are expected to shift to platforms like YouTube Shorts, Instagram Reels, and Facebook, boosting competitors like Meta and Alphabet.
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5. Impact on Social Commerce​
   TikTok Shop sellers, especially small businesses, face a steeper challenge compared to creators. A ban could destabilize the burgeoning social commerce ecosystem. Meta’s and Google’s market shares are already rising as advertisers and sellers hedge against a potential TikTok ban.
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6. Survival Strategies​
   TikTok might:
   - Beat the ban in court.
   - Accept halfway measures, like selling U.S. operations.
   - Rely on influential allies, such as Trump or other public figures, to campaign for its survival.
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7. International Precedents​
   TikTok faces restrictions or bans in countries like India, Canada, and others, raising questions about whether a U.S. ban could set a global precedent. Canada has already taken steps to shut down TikTok offices, and India banned the app entirely in 2020, citing national security concerns.
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8. National Security Concerns​
   Lawmakers argue that TikTok’s ownership by ByteDance presents risks to user data and national security. The debate extends to partnerships with companies like Amazon, highlighting TikTok’s integration into U.S. commerce.
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9. Broader Business Concerns​
   The uncertainty around TikTok’s future has prompted brands to develop contingency plans while still investing in the platform’s massive Gen Z audience.
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10. Future of Trends​
    If TikTok falls, the question remains: Where will the next wave of digital trends originate? TikTok’s unique algorithm and creator ecosystem may leave a lasting gap in cultural innovation.

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What do you think will happen? Hit reply to this email and let's have a chat!

Read time: 5 mins

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Hot Tok News

TikTok faces global legal challenges

‍​TikTok is not just battling a potential ban in the U.S.; it’s facing legal fights in at least 20 countries. The New York Times deciphers how these challenges could shape TikTok’s future worldwide.
​https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/technology/tiktok-ban-global-legal-battles.html​

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TikTok Shop rival Whatnot raises $265M at a $5B valuation​

Live shopping platform Whatnot reported over $3 billion in sales last year, leveraging live video auctions where sellers showcase items in real-time and interact with buyers via chat. With this new funding, the platform is cementing its position as a serious challenger to TikTok Shop.
​https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/tiktok-rival-startup-whatnot-shopping-platform-raise/​

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RedNote, the app gaining traction ahead of a potential TikTok ban​

As TikTok’s future in the U.S. remains uncertain, RedNote has quickly become the most downloaded app in the U.S. App Store, offering users a potential alternative to TikTok’s features.
​https://www.thegardnernews.com/story/news/technology/2025/01/14/what-is-rednote-tiktok-replacement-app/77701997007/​

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TikTok Shop expands into Mexico as part of its Latin America strategy​

TikTok Shop is entering Mexico with a zero-commission offer for the first 90 days, marking its initial step into Latin America. Transactions are set to begin in February.
​https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3293608/tiktok-expands-e-commerce-operation-mexico-amid-potential-us-ban​

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TikTok Shop expands collectible categories, taking aim at Whatnot and eBay Live​

TikTok Shop is adding new collectible categories, including comics, manga, and sports memorabilia, with a focus on authenticity for high-value items. This is a direct challenge to platforms like Whatnot and eBay Live Commerce, where collectibles dominate.
​https://www.retaildive.com/news/tiktok-shop-collectibles-comic-manga/736391/​

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YouTube partners with Shopee for YouTube Shopping in Southeast Asia​

YouTube has launched a shopping feature in partnership with Shopee across Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, setting the stage for a showdown with TikTok Shop in the region. With a larger user base, YouTube faces a tough battle as TikTok continues to dominate with creators and users.

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​https://restofworld.org/2025/youtube-shopping-shopee-partnership/​
​https://blog.google/intl/id-id/products/platforms/youtube-memperluas-youtube-shopping-di-indonesia/​

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TikTok Shop brands recap 2024 and prepare for an uncertain 2025​

With the looming TikTok ban, brands like BossUp Cosmetics and HeyDude are reflecting on their 2024 successes and strategizing for 2025. This article provides a closer look at how brands are navigating these uncertain times.
​https://wwd.com/business-news/business-features/tiktok-shop-brands-2024-recap-and-2025-plans-1236798908/​

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Influencer marketing budgets set to rise in 2025​

Over half of brands plan to increase creator marketing budgets in 2025, with a significant portion going to TikTok Shop and YouTube Shopping. Both platforms offer strong engagement and direct conversions, making them a focus for brands in the coming year.
​https://www.voguebusiness.com/story/companies/what-influencer-marketing-budgets-should-look-like-in-2025​

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AI-powered chatbots boosted 2024 holiday online sales by 4%​

Salesforce data shows that AI chatbots revolutionized holiday shopping in the U.S., streamlining purchases and returns while contributing to a 4% year-over-year increase in online sales.
​https://wmbdradio.com/2025/01/06/ai-influenced-shopping-boosts-online-holiday-sales-salesforce-data-shows/​

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TikTok Shop finds its groove in music sales​

TikTok Shop has primed users to make quick transactions, and some record labels have taken notice. Vinyl and merch sales are now thriving on the platform, proving its potential as a music e-commerce powerhouse.
​https://www.billboard.com/pro/can-tiktok-shop-help-music-vinyl-merch-sales/​

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Amazon’s Cyber Week trends and insights

‍​Amazon revealed its Cyber Week 2024 trends, showcasing what’s driving growth and innovation during one of the most competitive weeks in e-commerce. Interesting details on the beauty category and TikTok Shop details.
​https://beautymatter.com/articles/amazon-cyber-week-2024-trends-insights

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Tokonomics

TikTok Shop GMV in 2024 surpasses $30 billion

‍​According to Tabcut, TikTok Shop’s global GMV hit an estimated $32.6 billion in 2024, with the U.S. leading as its largest market, generating $9 billion in GMV. This cements TikTok Shop's position as a major player in global e-commerce.

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​Full report here: https://thelowdown.momentum.asia/tiktok-shop-gmv-in-2024-surpassed-us30-billion/​

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Crazy Tok

What the duperoonie is going on?​

The Walmart Birkin Bag has taken TikTok Shop by storm, with creators dubbing it the “duperoonie” of the iconic luxury tote. This viral sensation shows just how TikTok trends can redefine product desirability—turning an affordable Walmart tote into a must-have accessory. Proof that with the right spin, anything can become iconic on TikTok.

Watch the unboxing of the Birkin dupe »

StyledByKristi

Walmart Birkin. Thanks for the recommendation @Jessi My 💚 She has them linked in her LTK. I don’t have an LTK so go use hers!! They sell out fast so you just have to just keep checking back!

♬ original sound - StyledByKristi

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​https://www.glamour.com/story/the-walmart-birkin-bag-explained​

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That’s a wrap!

By the time the next edition hits your inbox, we’ll have more clarity on TikTok’s future in the U.S.

Will it be business as usual or a game-changing moment for social commerce?

Either way, you can count on me to break it all down for you.

Stay tuned, and as always, feel free to hit reply if you have any thoughts or questions—I’d love to hear from you!

Here’s to navigating uncertainty together. 🚀

Steph

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